OPEC+ maintains oil output policy for October

OPEC+ has decided to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October as the producer alliance continues to assess market conditions amid disruptions to oil exports caused by the Iran conflict.

 

The decision was taken at a meeting on Sunday involving seven key OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

 

The group’s influence over the physical oil market has been constrained by the ongoing conflict, which has disrupted crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has made it more difficult for OPEC+ to influence actual supply reaching global markets.

 

In August, OPEC+ approved a further increase in September production, completing the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million barrels per day supply cut introduced in 2023. However, despite the planned increases, actual production remains significantly below official targets due to the impact of the war.

 

Analysts said the conflict has reduced the effectiveness of production targets in determining physical supply.

 

According to Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy, OPEC+ has limited control over the physical oil market because changes to production targets do not guarantee that the additional crude will actually be produced or reach consumers.

 

The focus is now expected to shift toward 2027 production plans, rather than monthly adjustments.

 

OPEC+ still has another round of production restrictions covering most members of the 21-country alliance through the end of 2026. Before deciding how to unwind those cuts, the group must assess members’ sustainable production capacities and establish new 2027 output baselines, which will determine future quotas.

 

The review is expected to take place later this year. Sources have indicated that OPEC+ could therefore pause further production increases during the fourth quarter.

 

Sunday’s statement did not provide guidance on production policy beyond October.

 

In recent years, monthly production decisions have been handled by the seven countries that met on Sunday, along with the United Arab Emirates, which withdrew from OPEC in May.

 

The seven-member group is scheduled to meet again on October 4.