- September 27, 2025
- Posted by: Tresmark
- Category:
The European Renaissance wasn’t born from calm. It came out of a series of shocks.
– A plague wiped out a third of Europe, breaking the old order — labor became scarce, wages rose, power shifted.
– Then Constantinople fell, and scholars fled to the West, sparking a revival of thought.
– Gutenberg’s press spread those ideas, while Italian bankers financed voyages that opened up a new world, flooding Europe with trade and wealth.
Knowledge, capital, timing — they aligned. And Europe’s golden age began. Stars don’t line up on their own. They align after disruption, when space is cleared for transformation.
Pakistan’s Alignment
Today, Pakistan is seeing its own rare alignment. A fatal miscalculation by India, a decisive blow by Pakistan reshaping the world’s calculus. A hostile strike on Qatar jolting the region into demanding stronger security, paving the way for the Saudi defence pact. US ties are warming, GCC support is widening. Behind the scenes, minerals, oil, and even crypto are brewing as new incentives.
Is a rare constellation in the making? That will depend on whether we take urgent economic reforms at home.
The Reality Check
The World Bank pegs poverty at ~25% by 2023–24, with floods and inflation pushing ~13m back into poverty. A consumption-led, low-investment model has left millions just above the line — and highly vulnerable. Focus on education, unemployment, energy crises and economic reforms need to be on the top of the agenda.
KSE100 Sparkles
The index is on fire, hitting an all-time high of 162,422 yesterday, fuelled by optimism from geopolitical developments — especially the successful White House meeting between Trump, Shehbaz Sharif, and Asim Munir. Liquidity is ample, and the 170k level we projected a few months ago, looks achievable within the next month or two.
While some analysts flag rising badla and futures open interest as concerning, senior traders argue leverage is concentrated in blue chips and doesn’t pose a systemic risk.
Currency Outlook
Forex liquidity is strong in the interbank, with most banks long in dollars, even after the expected $500mn Eurobond repayment. Exporters are actively selling forward dollars, while SBP has slowed its mop-up of surplus forex. The central bank leaving liquidity in the market signifies one thing — it wants the Rupee stronger.
Our earlier 280.50 bottom level is now under threat, especially as we expect the IMF to release its next $1bn tranche after the current review cycle.
Markets are sparkling, liquidity is strong, and the Rupee has a tailwind — but whether these stars stay aligned will come down to the reforms we deliver at home.
USD/PKR
* 1 Week: 281
* 1 Month: 280.50
* 1 Quarter: 282.00
EUR/USD
* 1 Week: 1.1628 (Bearish)
* 1 Month: 1.1811 (Bullish)
* 1 Quarter: 1.1895 (Bullish)
GBP/USD
* 1 Week: 1.3296 (Bearish)
* 1 Month: 1.3591 (Bullish)
* 1 Quarter: 1.3655 (Bullish)
USD/JPY
* 1 Week: 149.85 (Bullish)
* 1 Month: 146.21 (Bearish)
* 1 Quarter: 143.34 (Bearish)
Oil WTI
* 1 Week: 64.75 (Bearish)
* 1 Month: 66.17 (Neutral)
* 1 Quarter: 67.33 (Bullish)
Gold
* 1 Week: 3718.67 (Bearish)
* 1 Month: 3603 (Bearish)
* 1 Quarter: 3660 (Bearish)
