IMF lowers Pakistan’s growth outlook for the current fiscal year to 3.2%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered Pakistan’s economic growth outlook, cutting its GDP projection for the current fiscal year to 3.2 percent, down from 3.6 percent estimated in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook.

The Fund in its latest report “World Economic Outlook 2026 update, global economy: steady amid divergent forces”, estimated Pakistan’ GDP growth at three percent in 2025, which is projected to grow to 3.2 percent in the outgoing fiscal year 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027.

World Bank has projected Pakistan GDP growth to remain at three percent in fiscal year 2025–26 before rising to 3.4 percent in fiscal year 2026–27.

The National Accounts Committee (NAC) has approved the updated growth of GDP during fiscal year 2024-25 at 3.09 percent. The Committee further estimated that economy has posted a growth of 3.71 percent during first quarter (Q1) of fiscal year 2025-26.

The Fund stated that global growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3 percent in 2026 and at 3.2 percent in 2027: rates similar to the estimated 3.3 percent outturn in 2025.

The forecast marks a small upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with that in the October 2025 WEO. This steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces. Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), more so in North America and Asia than in other regions, as well as fiscal and monetary support, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and adaptability of the private sector.