FBR Projects Strong Growth in FY27 Sales Tax Collection

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) expects strong growth in sales tax collection during FY2026-27, supported by improvements in large scale manufacturing (LSM), domestic demand, and trade activity.

 

According to the FBR's Revenue Forecasting Report 2026-27, sales tax revenue is projected to reach PKR 4.735 trillion, representing an annual growth of 9.3%. The report noted that sales tax performance is closely linked to consumption, industrial production, and import volumes, making it a key but economically sensitive source of revenue.

 

The FBR also forecasts direct tax collection to increase to PKR 7.366 trillion in FY27, reflecting a projected growth of 14.5% over the previous fiscal year. The increase is expected to be driven by stronger GDP growth, higher corporate profitability, greater economic documentation, and improved tax compliance and enforcement.

 

Meanwhile, customs duty collection is estimated at PKR 1.496 trillion, with projections based on expected import growth, exchange rate movements, and the existing tariff structure. The report noted that customs revenues remain sensitive to global economic conditions, trade policies, and Pakistan's external sector performance.

 

The FBR further projects Federal Excise Duty (FED) collections of PKR 902 billion in FY2026-27, with growth expected to depend on production trends in key sectors and the continuation of current tax policies.