Geopolitical manoeuvering is now steering the KSE100 more than domestic data

With reports of the US repositioning assets in Qatar and Bahrain, markets are increasingly interpreting this as preparation rather than signalling. Oil and gold pricing reflects that shift. Brent closed materially higher at 71.49, while gold settled near 5231.2, both building in a risk premium.

Tehran’s posturing remains defiant, and traders are positioning for prolonged turbulence rather than a one-day event.

Pakistan’s operations against terrorist sanctuaries are an evolving backdrop, but the market impact should remain secondary to oil and external escalation risk.

At this stage, we expect consolidation at lower levels rather than a disorderly collapse. However, if the US initiates direct military action, another wave of selling is likely as risk will be repriced.

Markets are not panicking, but they are preparing.