- December 13, 2025
- Posted by: Tresmark
- Category:
Tresmark: The Manhattan Project (MP) was a top-secret United States government program during World War II whose sole objective was simple:
To build an atomic (nuclear) bomb before Nazi Germany could.
One goal. One race. One deadline.
No one knew what they were building. Everyone was focused only on their part of the assignment. One scientist later recalled realizing what they had built only when he saw the flash in the New Mexico desert during the first test. He said the light felt “like the sun coming closer.”
People sacrificed privacy, certainty, and even moral clarity, because the state had made one thing unmistakably clear. This must be done. There is no alternative. Time is running out.
Pakistan has never demanded that kind of economic alignment.
Not for growth. Not for reform. Not for their children.
In the past, national interest was defined through other goals. Going forward, national interest must be defined by economic stability.
The deeper lesson
The Manhattan Project was a governance miracle, not a scientific one. The state decided what must be done, by when, and reorganised everything around that outcome. Pakistan now needs that same level of economic alignment.
Pakistan’s biggest economic failure is not inflation, debt, or even governance. It is that the country has never agreed on where it wants to go, by when, and what success actually looks like.
Five-for-Fifty
This is what economist Atif Mian means when he says Five-for-Fifty. Make 5% GDP growth every year a must for the next 50 years. Certainly achievable. It requires a collective decision that growth is the national priority, even when it conflicts with comfort, ideology, or short-term political gain.
Citizens must believe the target is real and that it will not change with the next government. Businesses must invest with a long horizon. Bureaucracies must be rewarded for outcomes, not procedure. Political parties must compete within the goal, not over it.
Pakistan has tried policy reform many times. What it has never tried is a binding national commitment with a number, a timeline, and public ownership. Five-for-Fifty only works if it becomes that burning goal.
Fragmented wins
Last week delivered several material wins:
• IMF approved and released a $1.2bn tranche
• ADB & World Bank approved $940mn for SOE reforms
• US Exim Bank approved $1.2bn for mining and critical minerals at Reko Diq
• Remittances up 9% in the first 5 months of the fiscal year
• Reserves set to cross $20.5bn, highest since Covid
These are positive developments. But they remain fragmented. They stabilise the economy. They do not transform it.
Without being integrated into a clear economic vision with a defined goal and deadline, they will not materially improve the lives of ordinary Pakistanis.
The IMF’s own assessment reflects this. Pakistan’s trajectory points more toward economic containment than recovery.
IMF conditions: containment over recovery
• Monetary policy expected to remain tight as inflation risks persist
• Fiscal space narrowed further, with higher primary surplus targets and limited tolerance for slippage
• Reserve accumulation remains the central anchor, with adequacy targets set well above current levels
• The framework prioritises stability and balance-sheet repair over growth acceleration
Pakistan Rupee Outlook
The rupee strengthened again this week, but only by the familiar 5–10 paisa run rate, despite positives on the macro front. The prevailing view is that the central bank is actively smoothing the move, slowing appreciation rather than allowing a sharp adjustment.
A disproportionately stronger rupee would risk undermining the external account just as stability is being restored.
Looking ahead, the rupee appears set to close the calendar year around 280/$ and remain largely range-bound into the first quarter of next year, with interest rates and oil prices both appearing stable.
The near-term is about stability. The real question is whether Pakistan uses this window to finally commit to a growth path with a destination and a deadline.
