Pakistan’s Market Keeps Roaring — 170,000 Target in Sight

Trump & Putin
In February 1945, as World War II neared its end, the world’s eyes turned to a small Crimean resort town called Yalta. Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin gathered to decide the post-war order. The photographs showed unity, statesmanship, and history being made. But behind the images, the reality was far less balanced. Stalin walked away with Eastern Europe in his pocket, while Roosevelt and Churchill sold the optics of victory to their publics.

The Trump–Putin summit carried the same choreography — motorcades, red carpet, smiles for the cameras. Trump got the headlines, News clips, and the illusion of being the indispensable dealmaker. Putin got what mattered: recognition on US soil, time on the battlefield, and legitimacy on the global stage — without giving up a single inch in Ukraine.

Impact on Financial Markets
Markets see through the theater. The summit delivered no ceasefire, no commitments, just celebrations. This means volatility stays in play: oil has surged, adding pressure on energy importers; Bitcoin has hit record highs, reflecting appetite for non-traditional hedges; and global stocks are diverging as capital rotates toward commodities and digital assets. Safe-haven demand for gold remains firm, while currencies in trade-sensitive economies wobble under tariff and geopolitical concerns. Trump also dissed the idea of additional tariffs on China for buying Russian oil. The lesson is the same as Yalta — watch not what leaders say in front of cameras, but what they quietly take away.

Pakistan’s Turnaround Story
August 2025 marks the tail end of Pakistan’s economic rollercoaster — from near-sovereign default, runaway inflation, and a collapsing rupee to cautious stabilization under a $7 billion IMF program. Moody’s has upgraded Pakistan’s rating to Caa1 (stable), citing stronger reserves and external buffers, while bonds have rallied to levels last seen in early 2022. The SBP, with inflation easing, now has room to trim its 11% policy rate before year-end, as hinted at by the finance minister.

Still, the picture is far from secure. GDP growth is stuck near 3%, reforms remain painfully slow, and inflation risks linger amid energy tariffs, import shocks, excess money supply and weak governance. Without deeper structural change, the recovery risks stalling.

Yet the KSE-100 has surged almost 90% in PKR terms over the past year, putting it among the best-performing frontier indices. With urbanisation, rising consumption, and a youthful population as natural growth drivers, Pakistan has the ingredients of a long-term opportunity. But policies to attract FDI and unlock private investment remain essential to convert macro stability into sustainable growth.

Target: Tresmark expects the KSE-100 to cross 170,000 by December.

Currency Outlook
While it would have been preferable for the Rupee not to breach the 282/$ level, it did so yesterday (bid side) in a shortened week. This, however, paves the way for further Rupee gains. Liquidity has improved and import payments are being executed with relative ease. The coming week will be crucial to gauge whether policymakers hold the line on the Rupee’s value. We expect the currency to strengthen toward 280.50/$ over the next month, with mild interest likely from exporters to sell in the forward market.

Projections:
• 1 Week: 282.00
• 1 Month: 281.50
• 1 Quarter: 283.00
EUR/USD
• 1 Week: 1.1662 (Bearish)
• 1 Month: 1.1647 (Bearish)
• 1 Quarter: 1.1764 (Sideways)
GBP/USD
• 1 Week: 1.3600 (Bullish)
• 1 Month: 1.3629 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 1.3777 (Bullish)
USD/JPY
• 1 Week: 147.5 (Bullish)
• 1 Month: 145.31 (Bearish)
• 1 Quarter: 142.54 (Bearish)
Oil WTI
• 1 Week: 63.25 (Bullish)
• 1 Month: 65.64 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 65.88 (Bullish)
Gold
• 1 Week: 3359.33 (Bullish)
• 1 Month: 3399.17 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 3437.14 (Bullish)