- October 25, 2025
- Posted by: Tresmark
- Categories:
Tresmark: Ever had a $5,000 breakfast?
In the California Gold Rush, the price of breakfast soared to equivalent of $5,000 in today’s money — not because food was scarce, but because greed took over. Farmers left crops to rot, soldiers deserted posts, and preachers walked out mid-sermon to head west. San Francisco’s harbour turned into a graveyard of ships, more than five hundred of them, abandoned by crews seeking Gold.
Gold changed “behaviour”, “history”, and the very shape of the “monetary system.”
It has done that to mankind multiple time.
This time, it’s not gold diggers, its Central Bankers, not only looking to hedge against inflation, but actually protecting their assets. Behind every gold rally, there’s always a story of fear — not just greed.
Why Gold Keeps Going Up
– Central Banks Are the New Miners: They bought 244 tonnes of gold in Q1 alone, 800 tonnes annualized — roughly one-third of global mine output. Over 90% plan to keep adding, quietly shifting reserves away from the USD.They are looking for insurance against a system they no longer fully trust.
– The Dollar’s Slow Unraveling: U.S. debt now sits above $38 trillion, with deficits running over 6% of GDP. Add layers of trade wars, tariffs, and election spending, and the world’s reserve currency looks less like a fortress and more like a “glass palace”. When credibility weakens, gold strengthens — it’s the oldest trade in finance.
– Supply Can’t Keep Up: Global mine supply is up barely +1% this year, with no major new projects in sight.
Recycling hasn’t picked up despite record prices — people are holding, not selling. Demand is structural, supply isn’t.
What happened last week
– Profit-taking after 9 straight weeks of gains.
– Liquidity was thing, specially with India’s Diwali shutdown
– Leveraged positions triggered margin calls & selling amplified
– The dollar firmed as traders delayed Fed cut bets.
Bubble? Does the Case Still Hold?
– CBs are still buying near record pace; mine supply remains stagnant.
– Fiscal deficits, high debt, and subdued real yields make gold behave like liquidity insurance, not speculation.
– This is the same pattern seen in past super-cycles: a sharp mid-trend correction before a stronger leg higher.
The Twin Metal
Silver surged past $51 an ounce, overtaking the infamous 1980 peak when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market and sent prices soaring before losing everything. Silver remains almost twice as volatile as gold, swinging harder on both optimism and panic.
– After hitting $54.6, it crashed to $46.8 in a matter of days — a 7.5% slide that wiped out over-leveraged trades.
– Yet, the pullback has now stabilized, and technicals suggest a fresh multi-cycle expansion phase.
– Industrial demand — from EVs, solar panels, and chip manufacturing — keeps the floor strong, even when speculative money exits.
In essence, silver moves like gold’s twin in fast-forward, and often signals where gold might head next.
Historical Context
– Gold moves in 8–12 year cycles:
• 1970s inflation: 1980 boom $35 to $850, a 2,300% increase
• 2001–2011: post-9/11 and QE era $255 to $1,920, a 650% climb
• 2018–present: fiscal excess, debt, and de-globalization $1,160 to $4,397, already a 280% rise
– A 500% and a 1000% increase would take gold to $6,950 and $12,500 per ounce
– Current Outlook: Analysts are projecting a year end rate of $4,600. No body would want to forecast beyond that, even if it was possible
Should you buy or not?
– Running out of space – look for it in next week’s post.
USD/PKR
• 1 Week: 281.00
• 1 Month: 280.50
• 1 Quarter: 281.00
EUR/USD
• 1 Week: 1.1620 (Bearish)
• 1 Month: 1.1805 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 1.1903 (Bullish)
GBP/USD
• 1 Week: 1.3363 (Bullish)
• 1 Month: 1.3517 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 1.3625 (Bullish)
USD/JPY
• 1 Week: 152.15 (Bearish)
• 1 Month: 146.76 (Bearish)
• 1 Quarter: 145.34 (Bearish)
