- November 8, 2025
- Posted by: Tresmark
- Categories:
Tresmark: In 480 BC, the Persians believed numbers would drown the Greeks. It was mathematics versus maneuver. The Persians brought thousands of ironclad ships; the Greeks, only wooden ones and vastly outnumbered. But their commander, Themistocles, saw what the Persians couldn’t — that size is a burden in narrow waters.
When Persia’s army advanced on Athens, Themistocles made a decision that shocked his people. He abandoned the city and let it burn. He wagered that if Athens fell but its fleet survived, Greece could still win. The gamble worked. He drew the Persian ships into the narrow straits of Salamis and destroyed the largest navy on earth. Greece was saved not by strength, but by strategy.
Elon Musk’s staggering compensation
Last week, Tesla’s shareholders approved Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar package by an overwhelming majority. His pay now exceeds the annual GDP of several small nations. Capital is again shifting westward, not by ships but by algorithms. Musk’s package is staggering, and it’s also symbolic of how America continues to centralize the world’s capital and confidence. America’s dominance lies not in brute force or numbers, but in innovation and data.
Capital flight to the US
Global capital is still being pulled toward the US, fueled by the AI and tech boom, corporate reshoring, and energy independence. America remains the growth magnet in a fragmented world, attracting funds even as Europe and Asia face policy and export headwinds.
US Government shutdown
Beneath that surface strength, domestic sentiment is weakening. As of now, the U.S. government shutdown has lasted 39 days, making it the longest in U.S. history, increasing job worries and impacting spending outlook before the Christmas season.
Dollar fatigue
The dollar’s long stretch of resilience is showing fatigue. Structural supports like tariff inflows and yield advantage are fading. Softer US data and renewed demand for the yen and other safe havens show that capital is becoming more selective. Markets are shifting from buying the dollar to selling its strength, expecting a slower and more two-way dollar trend ahead.
PKR Update – Steady amid mixed flows
The rupee held firm this week, gaining about 10 paisa, supported by strong remittance inflows and expectations of IMF board approval by month-end. The trade deficit widened as imports rose faster than exports, while reserves slipped slightly. On the positive side, remittances kept up their bull streak, touching $3.4 billion, giving a cushion to the external account.
FX swaps remain soft but are expected to steady from Monday as market flows normalize. Up to four months of forward booking is still considered safe if premiums climb back to September levels.
Overall, the rupee is trading in a stable range with short-term support from IMF optimism and remittances. The medium-term view depends on oil prices, import demand, and fiscal discipline.
BRICS and EM currencies
Currency YTD % Direction
– INR -6.8% Weaker
– BRL +11.2% Stronger
– CNY +1.8% Stronger
– RUB +9.1% Stronger
– ZAR +6.8% Stronger
– EGP +4.4% Stronger
– TRY -18.9% Weaker
– PKR +0.7% Stronger
Most emerging market currencies have gained against the dollar this year. The real, ruble, and rand lead on commodity strength, while the yuan, Egyptian pound, and rupee have also edged higher.
The Indian rupee and Turkish lira remain under pressure — India from tariff impact and equity outflows, and Turkey despite a record 40% interest rate, showing that high yields can’t rebuild trust on their own.
Overall, EM currencies look steadier, supported by better policy signals and stronger external flows. The PKR continues to hold firm among the more stable ones.
Projections
USD/PKR
• 1 Week: 280.70
• 1 Month: 281.00
• 1 Quarter: 282.00
EUR/USD
• 1 Week: 1.1502 (Bearish)
• 1 Month: 1.1820 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 1.1919 (Bullish)
GBP/USD
• 1 Week: 1.3125 (Bearish)
• 1 Month: 1.3437 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 1.3512 (Bullish)
USD/JPY
• 1 Week: 153.32 (Sideways)
• 1 Month: 148.59 (Bearish)
• 1 Quarter: 147.36 (Bearish)
Oil WTI
• 1 Week: 60.25 (Sideways)
• 1 Month: 64.25 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 64.25 (Bullish)
Gold
• 1 Week: 4003.33 (Bullish)
• 1 Month: 3869.17 (Sideways)
• 1 Quarter: 4021.67 (Bullish)
