- May 17, 2025
- Posted by: Tresmark
- Categories:
The Oracle’s Prophecy: A Parable for the Present
Before marching on Persia, King Croesus of Lydia asked the Oracle of Delphi whether he should attack, “If you cross the Halys River, you will destroy a great empire.”
He crossed. He lost. The “great empire” that fell wasn’t Persia — it was his own.
Much like Croesus, leaders often misread momentum as destiny.
The Modi Silence
Now that Trump has done a diplomatic flyby and walked away with global headlines — leaving Modi watching from the tarmac — the contrast is striking. Add to that the sting of verified reports by French and U.S. intel (& now China’s) on what really happened in the skies above the subcontinent: a strategic strike by Pakistan’s Air Force that cut through India’s prized squadrons like a hot knife through butter. Those were not minor skirmishes — these were precision strikes against Modi’s Rafales, Su-30MKIs, and even UAVs. The jewel in India’s crown — the S-400 Russian air defense system — was rendered blind. And it wasn’t taken down by numbers, but by sheer flying excellence. Pakistani pilots were sent in with open eyes and grim orders: You may not return. But before you don’t, strike first, strike hard.
They did both! And they returned!
The silence from his camp says more than any press release ever could. Will he follow Croesus’ fate?
That kind of precision, skill, and courage shown by PAF doesn’t just alter military balances — it rewrites narratives. It has given Pakistan a lifeline it so desperately needed, to be relevant, valued and respected.
Pakistan Clawing Back
That aerial gambit gave Pakistan more than tactical advantage — it gave it something intangible: belief and pride
And while the military won airspace, the economy is quietly rising from near bankruptcy:
– A rare current account surplus
– Primary fiscal surplus
– Inflation at multi-decade lows
– Twin IMF programs green lit
– A surging KSE-100 Index, making all time highs
– Stable rupee, and improving CDS
There is new hope that this momentum keeps going
Geneva Whisperings & the Return of Risk
A symbolic breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations appears to have taken place in Geneva, likely leading to a preliminary deal, as signalled by currency moves (e.g., weaker Swiss franc and yen).
The “Geneva spirit” is in the air.
But here’s the flip: the U.S. is staring down the barrel of fiscal austerity.
– Moody’s has cut America’s credit rating to Aa1.
– Fiscal tightening continues despite full employment.
– Without an offset from consumption, investment, or exports, the U.S. edges toward recession territory.
Gold Glitters yet again
Soft U.S. data, dovish Fed expectations, and a bruised dollar gave gold a brief pick up — prices rose nearly 2%. But this rally may be short-lived, depending on how the Geneva peach holds
The Oracle’s message still echoes:
“If you cross the river, you may destroy an empire. Just make sure it’s not your own.”
Projections:
USD/PKR
• 1 Week: 281.76
• 1 Month: 282.00
• 1 Quarter: 285.00
EUR/USD
• 1 Week: 1.1145 (Sideways)
• 1 Month: 1.1170 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 1.1291 (Bullish)
GBP/USD
• 1 Week: 1.3243 (Bearish)
• 1 Month: 1.3168 (Bearish)
• 1 Quarter: 1.3243 (Sideways)
USD/JPY
• 1 Week: 146.12 (Sideways)
• 1 Month: 145.17 (Sideways)
• 1 Quarter: 143.22 (Bearsih)
Oil WTI
• 1 Week: 60.88 (Bearish)
• 1 Month: 63.42 (Bullish)
• 1 Quarter: 64.57 (Bullish)
Gold
• 1 Week: 3206.67 (Bullish)
• 1 Month: 3083 (Bearish)
• 1 Quarter: 3170 (Neutral)
